Everything might change forever this century (or we’ll go extinct)
We could be living in the most important century in history. Here’s how Artificial Intelligence might uphold a historical trend of super-exponential economic growth, ushering us into a period of sudden transformation, ending in a stable galaxy-scale civilization or doom. All within the next few decades.
This video is based on Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series:
Below, you can find additional sources and further readings.
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▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀:
Most important:
Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series:
Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines:
More sources:
Our World in Data, page on population growth:
Our World in Data, page on democracy:
Our World in Data, population of England:
Our World in Data, World GDP over the last two millennia:
Estimates of World GDP, One Million B.C – Present, by J. Bradford De Long:
An Essay on the Principle of Population, by Thomas Malthus:
Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990* Michael Kremer:
Modeling the Human Trajectory, by David Roodman:
GDP Growth (annual %), from The World Bank:
2016 Expert survey on progress in AI:
Robert Miles’ (our narrator) YouTube channel on AGI alignment:
Trends in the cost of computing, by AI Impacts:
Animation at minute 31:50 inspired by the cover of the book “Facing the Intelligence Explosion“, by Luke Muehlhasuer: =sr_1_3?crid=1JDT2NEC4KCVC&keywords=Luke Muehlhauser&qid=1658663037&s=books&sprefix=luke muehlhauser,stripbooks-intl-ship,172&sr=1-3
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Writer: Matthew Barnett
Producer: :3
Animator: :3
Narrator: Robert Miles
Sound design: Tony Dipiazza
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CHAPTERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Chapters:
0:00 - A Very Unusual Time Period
4:29 - The 21st Century Could Be Much Weirder Than We Imagine
10:08 - The Duplicator
14:55 - The Most Important Invention Ever?
15:53 - When Will Advanced AI Arrive?
20:29 - Ajeya Cotra’s Report on AI Timelines
27:54 - What Does This All Ultimately Mean?
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