Saudi Arabia And Russia Just Unveiled Their NEW Oil Masterplan | This Changes The Entire Game
Saudi Arabia And Russia Just Unveiled Their NEW Oil Masterplan | This Changes The Entire Game
#energy #oil #gas
Oil prices are on the move, and there’s a chance they might hit a whopping $100 per barrel, but don’t get too excited just yet. Wall Street expert, Ed Morse, thinks it’ll only be a short visit to the $100 neighborhood. Why, you ask? Well, it’s all because of two things, output cuts and geopolitical tensions.
You see, countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia are playing a game of oil keep-away, and that’s causing prices to go up, at least for a little while. But hold your horses, because Ed Morse believes that $90 oil prices are like a balloon that’s about to pop. That’s because there’s more oil coming into the market than we need, especially if you don’t count Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Now, here’s the twist, higher prices right now might mean lower prices next year. It’s like a rollercoaster ride for your wallet. Over the past three months, the price of oil has been climbing like a determined mountaineer. West Texas Intermediate, a type of oil, has gone up by about $23 per barrel. And Brent crude, another type of oil, has been on a similar journey, rising more than 30%.
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According to the experts at Citi, we’re looking at oil averaging around $84 in the last part of 2023. And in 2024, it might even dip into the low $70s. Now, why is this happening, you ask?
Well, it’s because countries like the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana are producing more oil. Even Venezuela and Iran are joining the party. With all this extra oil floating around, it’s like a buffet, with lots of options, and prices should stay reasonable.
But wait, there’s more. Saudi Arabia might decide to pump more oil if things get too tight. It’s like having a secret stash of snacks for a rainy day.
Remember, in August, Saudi Arabia decided to keep their oil production low, and Russia joined in on the fun. These cuts are on top of what the OPEC group decided last year. It’s like a team effort to keep prices from going too wild.
Now, some folks at RBC Capital Markets even mentioned the possibility of hitting $100 per barrel. They call it a “momentum-based“ market. But here’s the not-so-fun part – as oil prices go up, so do gas prices.
The national average for gas is now around $ per gallon. And if you’re running a trucking business, the price of diesel is up too, sitting at $ per gallon. Oh, and guess what? Airlines like United, Delta, and American are feeling the pinch too. Higher fuel costs mean lower profits for them, and that’s no joke.
Now, here’s the big picture. Rising energy costs could have a not-so-great impact on our overall economy, just when the Federal Reserve is trying to cool things down. They might raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.
Oil prices are on a rollercoaster ride, and we might see $100 for a brief moment. But don’t get too comfortable because they’re likely to dip again. And remember, when oil prices go up, everything from gas to airline tickets feels the squeeze.
Now let’s talk more about production cuts and market deficits. Saudi Arabia and Russia have decided to keep cutting their oil production until the end of this year. What does that mean? Well, it’s going to create a situation where there’s not enough oil to meet the demand. This “market deficit“ is expected to stick around until the fourth quarter of 2023.
OPEC has reduced its output by 2 million barrels per day this year, although Iran has been pumping out more oil. On the other hand, non-OPEC countries, like the United States, Iran, and Brazil, have been producing a lot more oil, setting a record of 50.5 million barrels per day as of August 2023.
Now, let’s talk money. Russia’s making a pretty penny from its oil exports. Their oil export revenue shot up by $1.8 billion to $17.1 billion in August. Even though they shipped a bit less oil, they made up for it with higher prices. Most of their oil went to China and India, accounting for more than half of their total exports.
Refineries are having a bit of a tough time keeping up with the growing oil demand. This has led to refinery margins, which are like their profits, hitting an eight-month high in August. They’re facing challenges like unexpected shutdowns, issues with the quality of the oil they use, and supply chain problems.
Despite these challenges, global refinery operations are expected to increase to 82.4 million barrels per day in 2023 and 83.6 million barrels per day in 2024.
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