A CATALYST for the US CRISIS! A SELL-OFF of U.S. Treasury Bond POSITIONS is
Negotiations regarding the US debt ceiling agreement have made some progress in Congress, but concerns about the debt ceiling in the United States still persist. Several members of the House of Representatives have publicly expressed their opposition to this agreement, indicating potential challenges in passing it through Congress. The plan is scheduled for a vote on June 1st, but it may face challenges before the United States runs out of funding.
The US financial markets continue to be shrouded in uncertainty over a potential US default, which could trigger turmoil in the US Treasury market and serve as a catalyst for the US debt crisis.
In her final letter to Congress on May 30th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen mentioned that the United States is currently facing an urgent debt crisis, and if the debt limit is suspended or raised at the last minute, it could lead to a credit default by the United States, negatively impacting its credit rating and severely damaging its economic standing. She further warned that the cascading effects of a U.S. default would be catastrophic, potentially triggering a collapse of the U.S. dollar and severely undermining the United States’ financial reputation, which could in turn lead to a recession in the U.S. economy.
Furthermore, there is increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, with market expectations of a 25 basis points rate hike in June. In recent times, several Federal Reserve officials have expressed a hawkish stance, emphasizing the necessity of containing inflation.
The latest release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index indicates a rebound in inflation, highlighting the ongoing inflationary concerns in the United States. While the Federal Reserve aims to achieve an economic “soft landing“ while maintaining financial stability, this may increase the likelihood of a longer and more turbulent path towards a hard landing. As interest rates continue to rise, US Treasury prices may decline, leading investors to sell off to mitigate losses. Against the backdrop of the debt ceiling crisis, the US financial markets are brewing a storm.
The debate on the debt ceiling has been ongoing for several months, resulting in adverse consequences for the traditional financial sector in the United States, casting a shadow over the market. Of particular concern is the rise in borrowing costs, as credit tightening could trigger a more widespread US dollar liquidity crisis, leading to more US banks facing the risk of runs. Short sellers may target every bank with net losses, accelerating the exodus of foreign depositors from smaller US banks.
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